Evaluation of a measles vaccine campaign by oral-fluid surveys in a rural Kenyan district: interpretation of antibody prevalence data using mixture models.
Ohuma EO., Okiro EA., Bett A., Abwao J., Were S., Samuel D., Vyse A., Gay N., Brown DW., Nokes DJ.
We evaluated the effectiveness of a measles vaccine campaign in rural Kenya, based on oral-fluid surveys and mixture-modelling analysis. Specimens were collected from 886 children aged 9 months to 14 years pre-campaign and from a comparison sample of 598 children aged 6 months post-campaign. Quantitative measles-specific antibody data were obtained by commercial kit. The estimated proportions of measles-specific antibody negative in children aged 0-4, 5-9 and 10-14 years were 51%, 42% and 27%, respectively, pre- campaign and 18%, 14% and 6%, respectively, post-campaign. We estimate a reduction in the proportion susceptible of 65-78%, with approximately 85% of the population recorded to have received vaccine. The proportion of 'weak' positive individuals rose from 35% pre-campaign to 54% post-campaign. Our results confirm the effectiveness of the campaign in reducing susceptibility to measles and demonstrate the potential of oral-fluid studies to monitor the impact of measles vaccination campaigns.